Bitcoin Cracks 12-Year Support Against Gold - Is the Bull Market in Jeopardy?
As gold hits record highs, Bitcoin struggles to maintain momentum. Could this signal the end of the crypto bull run?
Bitcoin (BTC) is facing a tough battle as it fails to break past the $84,000 resistance, while gold (XAU) continues its meteoric rise, setting a new all-time high of $3,000 per ounce on March 14. The stark contrast between the two assets has traders and analysts questioning whether Bitcoin's bull run is on the verge of collapse.
Gold Outpaces Bitcoin in 2025
The year hasn't been kind to the world's largest cryptocurrency. BTC has tumbled more than 10% year-to-date (YTD), sliding from around $94,000 at the start of 2025 to approximately $84,000. Meanwhile, gold has surged nearly 13% in the same period, emerging as the dominant asset in the ongoing financial tug-of-war.
Market analyst Northstar recently shared a chart on X, highlighting Bitcoin's weakening stance against gold over the past 12 years. The data suggests that BTC is breaking below a critical support level that has held firm for more than a decade - a worrying sign for crypto bulls.
If Bitcoin remains under this support line for weeks or even months, it could indicate a deeper market shift, potentially marking the end of the current bullish phase. This underperformance is further reflected in investor capital flows.
Investors Favor Gold Over Bitcoin
Institutional and retail investors are shifting their capital into gold at an astonishing rate. According to the World Gold Council, US-based spot gold ETFs have seen over $6 billion in inflows YTD, with global inflows surpassing $23 billion.
Bitcoin, on the other hand, is experiencing the opposite trend. Data from SoSoValue reveals that US-based spot BTC ETFs have registered nearly $1.5 billion in net outflows since the beginning of the year. This clear divergence signals a shift from high-risk assets like crypto to safe-haven investments like gold.
Several macroeconomic factors could be fueling this movement. The combination of US President Donald Trump’s new trade tariffs, the Federal Reserve’s hawkish monetary policy, and recent turbulence in the stock market has heightened investor caution, prompting many to park their funds in historically stable assets.
Is the Crypto Bull Market at Risk?
Bitcoin's lagging performance against gold has raised concerns about the sustainability of the current crypto bull market. The total crypto market capitalization has shed over $600 billion since January, now hovering around $2.8 trillion.
Longtime gold advocate Peter Schiff argues that Bitcoin has already been in a stealth bear market for years. In a recent X post, Schiff pointed out:
"One Bitcoin now buys 27.7 ounces of gold. At its peak in 2021, one Bitcoin bought 36.3 ounces of gold. That means that in terms of gold, which is real money, the price of Bitcoin has fallen by 24%. So Bitcoin has been in a stealth bear market for the past three and a half years."
However, Bitcoin isn’t down for the count just yet. Positive macroeconomic shifts could still reignite demand. Cooling US inflation might push the Federal Reserve toward easing monetary policy, boosting liquidity and favoring risk-on assets like BTC. Additionally, a weakening US dollar could provide the perfect backdrop for a Bitcoin recovery.
