Crypto Bull Run Isn’t Over - It’s Just Shifting Gears, Says Analyst
Market experts remain divided, but one trader argues the cycle is evolving rather than ending.
In a market buzzing with uncertainty, crypto investors are split into two camps: those convinced the latest dip is just a warm-up for an upcoming altcoin rally and those who believe the bull run is already behind us. Koroush Khaneghah, founder of Zero Complexity Trading, summed up the divide in a recent post on X:
“Right now is the most divided timeline I’ve ever seen. Bulls believe this is the last dip before an Altseason. Bears think bull run is over.”
The Changing Nature of Crypto Cycles
Khaneghah argues that predicting market cycles has become increasingly difficult as the crypto landscape evolves. Unlike previous cycles, the market is seeing unique shifts: a transition from a typical altseason to a memecoin surge, Ethereum (ETH) struggling to reach new highs, and Bitcoin (BTC) smashing past $100,000 - something not seen in past cycles.
Two Possible Paths for Crypto
1. This Cycle Doesn’t Follow the Old Rules
One major difference this time around is institutional involvement, which has grown significantly. According to data from Arkham, BlackRock alone holds nearly $52 billion in BTC. This influx of institutional capital could create long-term buying pressure, making pullbacks less severe.
Khaneghah also highlights a key shift in liquidity: instead of one sector dominating, capital is now dispersed across multiple areas. Unlike previous cycles where DeFi led the charge, memecoins have now grown to match the market capitalization of DeFi.
Because of these changes, he predicts BTC dominance will continue rising, while altcoins experience more fragmented, smaller bull runs rather than one massive surge. “This means previous bull run playbooks won’t apply, and you simply have to trade rotations,” he explains.
2. The Bull Run Isn’t Over
Another argument for continued upside is that BTC has only climbed 1.6 times above its previous cycle high before pulling back - a relatively small move compared to past cycles. Historically, BTC has seen 40-50% corrections before making another major leg up, yet in this cycle, it has only retraced about 26% so far.
One key factor that could reignite the market is Ethereum. Many analysts believe a true bull run isn’t confirmed until ETH breaks its previous all-time high - something that has yet to happen. ETH still hasn’t surpassed $4,000, suggesting the possibility of a delayed altseason and a more extended cycle than initially expected.
For altcoins to pick up steam, Khaneghah sees the ETH/BTC pair as a crucial metric. If ETH/BTC finds a bottom and capital rotates out of memecoins and into utility-based sectors like DeFi and Real World Assets (RWA), altcoins could stage a comeback.
Trading the Cycle, Not the Bias
Khaneghah advises traders to stay flexible rather than rigidly sticking to one market outlook.
“If you’re a trader, you don’t have to marry a bias or commit to scenario 1 or 2. If BTC dominance continues, trade BTC by longing strength and shorting weakness. If alts start to bottom, shift capital there and buy the strongest coins.”
As the market adapts, traders must adjust their strategies accordingly - because in crypto, history doesn’t always repeat, but it often rhymes.
